Husky Football Preview and Predictions: 2011

by: Griffin Bennett

The 2011 season couldn’t start fast enough, I thought to myself as I walked out of Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego last December. Drunk on the Huskies’ first bowl victory in a decade (and other things), I began to dream about what the 2011 season could hold.

Fast forward seven months and the Huskies have some serious national sleeper buzz and there could be something to it. I’m not going to bother you all with a position-by-position brake down because odds are that if you’re reading this you are in the top 5th percentile of Husky football fans and already know everything. Instead, I’ll just touch on the reasons why the Huskies will either sink or swim this season as well as give an early preview and prediction for each game.

Sink:

Keith Price isn’t Jake Locker. We forget how many broken plays that Jake kept alive with his feet that otherwise would have been for losses. The offensive line is still relatively young and the rising stars may take some time to fully shine. Opposing defenses will stack the box with 8 and 9 defenders and dare Keith Price to throw it. While I don’t think that Chris Polk’s injury is a serious one, you never know how it may effect his play.

On defense, there is no doubt that the defensive line will be it’s strength. However, the defensive line’s job is to take up blockers and allow the linebackers to make plays. The problem is that our linebackers are young and, outside of Cort Dennison, their skills have barely been tested. Vic Aiyewa was a pleasant surprise last year but can we truly expect Fui/Gilliland/Timu to be as good as Vic was last year? I won’t hold my breath.

The secondary has it’s problems as well. To succeed this year, the Huskies can’t take another Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act from Q-Rich again. Last year he was worse than bad for the first 7 games and then became a serious play maker for the last 6. Which one is going to show up this year?

Swim:

This is the best crop of receivers that UW has ever had. Yeah, that’s right, I just busted out the hyperbole. Kearse and Aguilar are enough to have a solid staff by itself. Add in Parade All-American Kasen Williams, James Johnson, Kevin Smith, and Diandre Campbell and you have a disgustingly deep receiving corp.

Obviously, you have Chris Polk and his never-go-down running style with Keith Price who just finished his third pre-season under Sark’s system and you have a recipe for a truly deadly offense.

Ta’amu and Jamora ended last season as the Huskies two biggest break out stars. They bolster a defensive line that not only has size in the middle (Ta’amu, Thompson, Potoa’e, Shelton) but also speed on the ends (Jamora, Shirley, Crichton, Hudson). They should be wreaking havoc on third downs all year.

Another year under the belts of Trufant, Parker, Richardson, and Fellner can only be a good thing for the Dawgs’ secondary. There are some real positives on this defense.

Now on to the game previews.

Week 1: vs. Eastern Washington

Line: -18.5

They Eagles are the preseason number one team in the FCS after winning the “National Championship” last season. That makes them the 121st best college football team in the country. Their team is littered with transfers, dropouts, or people who were passed over by bigger schools. I’m not knocking these kids, it’s just the truth. If the Huskies and Eagles played this game 100 times the Eagles would win 5. Maybe. Don’t buy into the Eagle hype.

Prediction: UW 42, EWU 17. It won’t be as close as that score looks.

Week 2: vs. Hawaii

Projected Line: -10

The high octane Warrior offense comes to Montlake led by quarterback Bryant Moniz. He has a chance to lead the nation in passing yards this season and will really test the linebackers and secondary. Their defense is never anything special and nothing has changed this year.

More so than anything, I personally want revenge against Hawaii for the 2007 loss when the Dawgs were up 21-0 and then Colt Brennan picked the Huskies apart. Watching that game made me punch a cement wall which somehow didn’t shatter on impact and instead shattered my hand. The Huskies have come a long way and so has my temper (both thanks to Sark).

Prediction: UW 34, Hawaii 24. It will be an offensive game but the Huskies defense will be the difference.

Week 3:  @ Nebraska

Projected Line: +6.5

The third game in two years between these two squads should be a very fun one. There are a lot questions to be answered. Was Nebraska trying in the Holiday Bowl? Is Taylor Martinez alive? Which game last year was the closest to the truth? How many beers am I going to drink?

The Huskers lost some great players in Prince Amukamura and Roy Helu Jr., but they do return Jared Crick who is a beast inside against the run. This game will be a tone setter for both teams and the winner could go on to do great things this season.

Nebraska has a new offensive coordinator who is “looking to make everything easier”, whatever than means. He’s a run first guy who looks to pound the ball between the tackles and Nebraska has the beefy O-line to do it. It’s going to be a huge test for this highly touted UW D-line.

Prediction: UW 20, Nebraska 27. The game being in Lincoln will be the difference. It will be decided in the final 2 minutes.

Week 4: vs. California

Projected Line: -10

Have you ever heard of Zach Maynard or Isi Sofele? They are Cal’s quarterback and running back, respectively. I had to look them up. Shane Vereen left Cal high and dry as he went to the NFL instead of returning for his final year. All you need to know about Cal is that their punter is arguably their best player.

It’s a down year for Coach Tedford’s team and the Huskies have more talent on their roster. Hopefully it won’t be a let down game after playing Nebraska the week before.

Prediction: UW 28, Cal 10. Just too much running game from UW and Maynard isn’t good enough to beat a stout UW defense.

Week 5: @ Utah

Projected Line: +2.5

The Huskies will be the first Pac-12 home game for the Utes which means it will be a rowdy atmosphere. Utah is a tough team to project because this is easily their toughest schedule in their history and no one knows how that will effect their weekly performance on the field or in the film room. Utah can’t be looking ahead two weeks anymore to their key game as each week will be a battle. Unfortunately, Utah has their BYE week this year before they play the Huskies.

The Utes are led by QB Jordan Wynn who threw for 2,334 yards* last year and WR DeVonte Christopher is the real deal*. On defense, the Utes have a strong defensive line* and will make it hard to run the ball.

*All stats and reviews acquired in an inferior league.

Prediction: UW 24, Utah 28. I just have a bad feeling about this one. They are such an unknown and it being the first Pac-12 home game for the Utes is not a good thing. My opinion could completely change after I see them play at USC and at BYU early.

Week 6: BYE

Week 7: vs. Colorado

Projected Line: -11

It’s year one for Colorado in the Pac-12 and year one as a head coach for Jon Embree. Needing to learn brand new systems is never a good thing for a team and Colorado isn’t exactly bursting at the seams with talent, either.

They do have talented running back Rodney Stewart who is the lone star on the team. He is a true talent that has game-breaking ability. The rest of the offense is predicated on sophomore WR Paul Richardson who had a strong freshman campaign and QB Tyler Hansen who will just try to not be terrible during his senior year. Their O-line is Cougar-bad and needs some serious improvement.

The Buffs’ defense has just as many holes as their offense. They lost corners Jimmy Smith and Jalil Brown to the NFL draft and they aren’t exactly reloading. Throwing on Colorado should be the key.

Prediction: UW 32, Colorado 13. It should be a tough year for the Buffs and UW is better at just about every single position. This game is my Pac-12 Lock of the Year.

Week 8: @ Stanford

Projected Line: +18

I think this will be the toughest game of the season. Stanford has had UW’s number for a while now and their physical style can wear you down. Obviously, Andrew Luck is the best player in the country and is a huge factor in how well this Stanford team plays. Their O-line, led by my fellow Bellevue alum David DeCastro, lost three starters from last year but they have the talent to partially reload.

The loss of Jim Harbaugh is an obvious blow but the loss of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio could have a larger impact immediately. They have a good defense, talent wise, but how that comes together under new leadership remains to be seen. Shane Skov and Chase Thomas are dangerous at the linebacker position and will really challenge Price in the passing game.

Prediction: UW 21, Stanford 34. Maybe next year.

Week 9: vs. Arizona

Projected Line: -7.5

You only need to know one stat about Arizona this year. Their starting offensive line has only ONE previous start TOTAL. They lost all five starters from last year which is a huge problem for the Wildcats. Arizona is second only to UW at wide out with Criner, Douglas, and Buckner. Mix in RB Keola Antolin and QB Nick Foles and their offense should be electric. Too bad their offensive line won’t give Foles any time to throw deep and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was injured by week nine.

The Wildcat’s defense has to replace both defensive ends Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed who tore up the Pac-12 last year. Add in the injury to starting corner Jonathan McKnight and Arizona may struggle on defense more than people think.

Prediction: UW 29, Arizona 17. The Huskies will dominate the line of scrimmage all game. How will UW score 29? A safety. Mark it down.

Week 10: vs. Oregon

Projected Line: +14.5

This is the Huskies’ Superbowl. The last game before they rebuild Husky Stadium and the Huskies haven’t beaten the Ducks in 7 years. I won’t pretend that the Duck’s squad isn’t superior or that the Huskies won’t need to play at their very best to even be close in the fourth quarter.

This is our Rocky IV. Ivan Drago is the Ducks, Apollo Creed is our last 7 seasons, and the 2011 season is Rocky. You can feel the guard changing as Oregon gets further buried in scandal and Sarkisian is quickly building the Huskies back up. A win against the Ducks this season could be the final blow that knocks the Ducks off of their perch.

Offense: They’re fast. Defense: They’re fast.

Prediction: UW 35, Oregon 38. I couldn’t do it. I just couldn’t. They’re just a better team. It would be a pick with my heart instead of my head. It’s going to be close and it’s going to be high-octane. Can’t wait.

Week 11: @ USC

Projected Line: +3

You no longer need a wooden horse to sack Troy. All you need is to wear purple and gold (or black). Sarkisian has had USC’s number ever since moving north. While there is still a lot of talent left on the Trojan squad, it has yet to be seen how motivated they will be without hope of post-season play due to their sanctions. Washington will have a lot more to play for in week eleven and that could give them all the edge that they need. On the other hand, I doubt Lane Kiffin wants to lose to his former compatriot twice in a row.

I personally think Matt Barkley is overrated but he is still the second best quarterback in the conference. RB Marc Tyler is still suspended for an off-the-field incident and USC has yet to determine if he will be able to return this  year. I would bet that he sits out two or three games and then returns. Their O-line, which is usually a strength, now becomes their Achilles’ heel (pun intended) with Tyron Smith leaving early for the draft. Sophomore wide out Robert Woods is a freak athlete and should take a major step forward this season.

Defensively, the Trojans return safety T.J. McDonald whom all Husky fans remember from last year as the guy who seemingly was everywhere at the same time. Add in linebackers Kennard and Gallippo, and defensive ends Perry and Horton, and the Trojan defense is probably better than it was last year.

Prediction: UW 23, USC 27. The odds of beating any USC squad three years in a row (and two on the road) is too low for me to predict this one as a win. Kiffin gets his revenge and then gets demolished at Oregon the next week.

Week 12: @ Oregon State

Projected Line: -3

It’s not looking good for the Beavs this year. Quizz is finally gone and his brother James is still injured and no one knows if he will ever be healthy. McCants is not even close to Quizz and their running game will seriously suffer as a result.

The Beaver D is a hot mess. (I just wanted to write that sentence). Seriously, though, they’re bad. With DT Paea now gone, they don’t have a single game changer on that side of the ball.

Prediction: UW 32, OSU 17. I’m more of a Dawg person than a Katz person.

Week 13: vs. Washington State (at the Clink)

Projected Line: -13

Oh, Cougs. You’re so cute when you’re angry. You don’t even want to win this game. Do you want to give Paul Wulff even the slightest chance of coming back next year? It was a nice experiment and it failed miserably.

Jeff Tuel has serious weapons out wide in Karstetter and Wilson but they still don’t have a running game. Have you ever heard of Logwone Mitz? How about Rickey Galvin? Those are the Cougs’ options. While I enjoy poking fun at the Cougars, they have improved since last year. Their offensive line will continue to be their barometer as the team will only go as far as that unit lets them.

On defense, DE Travis Long is the best player by far and everyone else is average at best.

Prediction: UW 33, WSU 24. They Cougs can score points but they just can’t prevent them. Apple Cups are always close and I will never completely write them off. I’ve learned my lesson over the years.

In Review: 

Overall Record: 7-5

Bowl Game: Maaco Bowl (Las Vegas). Party time.

Final Thoughts: I think my review is pretty level headed and I would consider 7 wins a successful season for Sarkisian in his third year. Getting rid of the blow outs and getting back to a bowl game should be the baseline goal this year. Bow Down.

What the F%*k Just Happened?

by: Will “5 Loko” Stanley

It was a nice luscious mid-morning in Seattle, and I had woken up early (a relative term) to see who my Seattle Mariners were going to pick with the #2 overall selection in the 2011 MLB draft.

Unusually sweaty with anticipation, I opened up the online draft tracker just in time to see this:

[#2 -- Seattle Mariners -- Danny Hultzen, LHP, University of Virginia]

Wow.

To say that I was associate (less than) happy would be quite an understatement. It’s not that Hultzen is a bad player by any means, it’s just that 2011 was supposed to be one of those “special” draft years, and settling for something like the 8th best player at #2 is just … well … it sucks.

It didn’t help to have the four players that I for sure wanted more than Hultzen go directly after him in #3 – Trevor Bauer, #4 – Dylan Bundy, #5 – Bubba Starling! and #6 – Anthony Rendon. Honestly, what was more amazing was that Anthony Rendon, the presumed #2 pick all morning, ended up falling to the sixth pick.

Hultzen is by no means a bad player, and he has a legitimate chance to be in the big-league rotation within the next year or so. As a left-hander with solid command, Hultzen throws his fastball, change-up, and slider with maximum effectiveness due to his ability to control the strike zone of his fellow collegiate hitters. He is a terrific athlete, as he bats 5th regularly as the teams designated hitter.

Again, Danny Hultzen isn’t a bad player, but looking at who else was on the board has to make me consider this pick a failure/mistake that only time will be able to heal. My only issue is that with that time, I see those other players making a greater game-changing  impact at the Major League level.

Players I’d rather have drafted: Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy, Bubba Starling, Anthony Rendon

We had a chance to redeem ourselves though, because at our next pick, #62, there were still quite a few talented players on the board that could develop into all-star caliber players. It got me wondering that, “Maybe they are saving their money for a high-risk pick at #62, maybe they’ll go for the top prep left-hander in Daniel Norris, maybe, just maybe, they won’t make me commit seppuku.“

[#62 -- Seattle Mariners -- Bradley Miller, SS, Clemson University]

Ouch.

Brad Miller, or Bradley as I like to call him, is generally considered an overdraft. Be careful though, as uber-prospect Nick Franklin was thought of in a similar vein a few years ago, and we know how that has turned out. Miller is a gym rat, something we value highly, and he has a high probability of making it to the Majors. The issue? His level of impact. In such a deep draft, one would hope that our second pick would be someone we anticipated as an All-Star level player. Instead, we get a player of seemingly mediocre impact.

Players I’d rather have drafted: Daniel Norris, Dillon Howard, Anthony Meo, Jason Esposito, Andrew Susac, Nick Delmonico.

[#92 -- Seattle Mariners -- Kevin Cron, Huge Man, AZ Highschool]

What is going to be worse for the anti-marijuana-legalization rallying cry than having Smoak and Cron go back-to-back one sunny Seattle summer day. It doesn’t even matter which order they do it, because regardless, you are left with either “Smoak-Cron”" or “Cron-Smoak” and that’s just hilarious. Suffice it to say, this was easily my favorite pick of the day.

In terms of baseball skills, Kevin Cron is a behemoth that is sure to have enough power to crush 30 hrs in the big leagues. Similar to Rich Poythress from a couple years back, he is all bat, and it will be the development of that hit tool that determines whether or not he ever makes it to the big leagues. I vote yes. Talk about power that can play at Safeco — dude is massive.

Players I’d rather have drafted: Yeaaa! We win. He was probably the best player available. You know … the way you should draft. Always.

Once you get past the first couple rounds, it’s basically a crapshoot. That is how you end up with Albert Pujols getting drafted in the 13th round, or Mike Piazza in the 62nd. Some of the players I have an interest in were naturally drafted in the single-digit rounds.

Fearsome foursome:

• Steve Proscia (7th) – The number four hitter on one of the best teams in the country. Sure.
• John Hicks (4th) – The catcher and number three hitter on one of the best teams in the country. Double sure.
• Cavan Cohoes (9th) – Army brat who spends all his time whilst in Germany learning how to play shortstop and hit. Sign me up twice.
• Tyler Marlette (5th) – Highschool catcher with more upside than Hicks.

This was by no measure a terrible draft for the Mariners in 2011. I don’t think it was the best draft we could’ve had, but I understand the reasoning for a lot of these players. Obviously the big one that hurts is Hultzen > the field, but I’m sure we will all forget about it when Hultzen starts pitching well in the big leagues, or if any of those other players start to falter while Danny does not. The price may be prohibitive, but I am certain he will get signed and be up no later than 2013.

Draft Mocking – MLB 2011

by: Will Stanley

Okay, so I briefly went over the top 20 guys that I felt were available in this year’s MLB draft, which is also sure to change as the final weeks wind down before the draft. Even with that said, players will go to different teams based on the personal draft strategy incorporated by each team, their personal preference, as well as the needs of the ball club. It’s rare for a player to go straight to the majors however, so most teams won’t be drafting solely out of need and will rather take the best player available. At least we hope that’s what they are doing.

** – Denotes compensation selection for failing to sign 1st round pick in 2010.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates

• SHOULD PICK – Anthony Rendon
• WILL PICK – Gerrit Cole

Rendon > Cole, and this might not even be how it plays out, as Pittsburgh has been rumored to be looking hard at Hultzen as well as Dylan Bundy. Update: Apparently Cole is the pick, which bodes well for the Mariners.

2. Seattle Mariners

• SHOULD – Anthony Rendon
• WILL – Anthony Rendon

I think we luck out here and end up getting the better of the two players in Rendon out of Rice. He’s been getting pitched around to a ridiculous extent, with 50 more walks than the next highest player total on his team. If we don’t get Rendon, I’d hope we reach for the uber-talented Dylan Bundy, a high schooler that has reached triple-digits this year. 

3. Arizona Diamondbacks

• SHOULD – Dylan Bundy
• WILL – Danny Hultzen

Dylan Bundy could quite possibly be the #1 player out of this draft when it’s all said and done. I’m more sold on the proximity of Rendon and Cole to the majors, but Bundy is the next most talented prospect, and I certainly like him more than Hultzen.

4. Baltimore Orioles

• SHOULD – Dylan Bundy
• WILL – Dylan Bundy

The easy choice gets made for the Orioles by the teams who draft above them. Dylan Bundy will be the best player on the board, at a tough position to fill, and the only other guy that should give them any real thought would be the less-finished product of Bubba Starling.

5. Kansas City Royals

• SHOULD – Bubba Starling
• WILL – Bubba Starling

Another pick that will be dictated by what the teams above KC do. Bubba is a true 5-tool talent that will only add to the juggernaut that Kansas City is about to become.

6. Washington Nationals

• SHOULD – Trevor Bauer
• WILL – Alex Meyer

In what will surely not be the worst pick of the first round (see Houston) the Nationals pass over other highly touted pitching prospects to select the beast of a man that is Alex Meyer.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks**

• SHOULD – Trevor Bauer
• WILL – Sonny Gray

Everyone likes to opine that Kevin Towers is a baseball genius, that he can build teams better than most. If that’s the case, I’d like to see him nab one of the undersized phenom pitchers that will be available, with my gut leaning towards them going for the more traditional Sonny Gray.

8. Cleveland Indians

• SHOULD – Trevor Bauer
• WILL – Trevor Bauer

They loved Lincecum. They picked Lincecum once upon a time. Bauer is like Lincecum. They love Bauer. They will pick Bauer. 

9. Chicago Cubs

• SHOULD – Francisco Lindor
• WILL – George Springer

I think with Starlin Castro so young and already in the majors, the Cubbies will go for the outfield splash and select one of the better athletes in the draft. Springer has legitimate All-Star potential, but he has too many holes in his swing and I’m just not much of a fan.

10. San Diego Padres**

• SHOULD – Francisco Lindor
• WILL – Matt Barnes

I’m a bigger Barnes fan than most, but I see him being overdrafted by some team that should actually be taking a chance on the multi-talented Lindor. Lindor could conceivably go as high as #2 to us, but I see him slipping a bit more because of concerns about his future power. Barnes will be a solid #2 pitcher when he makes it to the big leagues. 

11. Houston Astros

• SHOULD – Francisco Lindor
• WILL – They will screw this up.  (John Stilson)

12. Milwaukee Brewers

• SHOULD – Francisco Lindor/Jed Bradley
• WILL – Jed Bradley

13. New York Mets

• SHOULD – Francisco Lindor
• WILL – Francisco Lindor

14. Florida Marlins

• SHOULD – Archie Bradley
• WILL – Taylor Guerrieri

15. Milwaukee Brewers**

• SHOULD – Archie Bradley
• WILL – Mikie Mahtook

16. Los Angeles Dodgers

• SHOULD – Archie Bradley
• WILL – Taylor Jungmann

17. Los Angeles Angels

• SHOULD – Archie Bradley
• WILL – Archie Bradley

18. Oakland A’s

• SHOULD – Daniel Norris
• WILL – Daniel Norris

19. Boston Red Sox

• SHOULD – Jackie Bradley Jr.
• WILL – Josh Bell Cory Spangenberg

20. Colorado Rockies

• SHOULD – Jackie Bradley Jr.
• WILL – Blake Swihart

21. Toronto Blue Jays

• Dillon Howard

22. St. Louis Cardinals

•  Javier Baez

23. Washington Nationals

• Joe Ross

24. Tampa Bay Rays

• Jackie Bradley Jr.

25. San Diego Padres

• Andrew Susac

26. Boston Red Sox

• Henry Owens

27. Cincinnati Reds

• Levi Michael

28. Atlanta Braves

• Alex Dickerson

29. San Francisco Giants

• Kolten Wong

30. Minnesota Twins

• Josh Osich

31. Tampa Bay Rays

• Jose Fernandez

32. Tampa Bay Rays

• Brandon Nimmo

33. Texas Rangers

• Matt Purke??

Others of note: CJ Cron, Tyler Beede, Jason Esposito, Andrew Chafin, Austin Hedges, Nick Delmonico, Anthony Meo, Tyler Anderson.

—–

This draft is utterly stacked, and guys who will be going in the supplemental and even second round would be first-rounders in many years. I wouldn’t be surprised if I only got 3/4 of the people who will even be going in the first round at all. It should be a fun one to watch, especially for Blue Jays and Rays fans, as their teams have an inordinate amount of picks within the top 100, so they look to add major talent to their respective farm systems.

—–

My personal top 10 talents:

1. Anthony Rendon

2. Dylan Bundy

3. Bubba Starling

4. Gerrit Cole

5. Trevor Bauer

6. Francisco Lindor

7. Sonny Gray

8. Matt Barnes

9. Jed Bradley

10. Mikie Mahtook

2011 MLB Draft [Top 20]

The Southern Bulldog, Sonny Gray figures to go in the Top-10 of this year's draft.

by: Will Stanley

I put my work in early this past winter and gave you my thoughts on the top of the 2011 draft in a nutshell. The main focus of that article was guys I liked more than the rest, specifically Bubba Starling, and then a brief view of the top of the draft.

Bubba Starling has since become a hot name. When noted ESPN draft analyst Keith Law started hyping the kid, all of a sudden he is appearing in blogs and his name is being heard far and wide. The other guys who have made a meteoric rise from where they were before are Francisco Lindor, a high school shortstop in Florida, and Dylan Bundy, a beast of a pitcher out of the Midwest.

From where we were before the season started, Rendon has slipped a bit and Cole likewise has narrowed the gap between the two. This potentially bodes well, as I still want Rendon over Cole, the caveat being that both are healthy for the forseeable future. There lies the problem however, as Rendon has been bothered by injuries consistently enough all year that people are worried about him being “injury prone,” thus explaining his slippage in others’ eyes.

1. Anthony Rendon (3B) - He’s still something like Evan Longoria Lite at worst, and that my friends is more than we currently have at the hot corner. If Rendon slips to #2, then yippee. If he doesn’t, then yippee, because it’ll mean we are going for the next guy on the list who is just as deserving of the #1 overall pick.

2. Gerrit Cole (RHP) – People think he’s makin’ moves, and though it may seem so, it’s hard to pass Rendon in such a small amount of time. I could honestly care less, because at this point it’s a lock that we get an awesome player, be it a pitcher or a third-baseman. Felix-Pineda-Cole does look amazing though.

3. Bubba Starling (CF) – I love me some Bubba, something that I hope to never repeat again, especially in prison. Regardless, Bubba is probably not moving from this spot unless one of the two guys above him gets seriously injured. Starling is the ultimate risk-reward pick in this draft, as he’s probably the best athlete, has 5-tool potential, and has an awesome name that fans would love. In the actual draft he may drop some, but I project him as the third best player when it’s all said and done.

4. Sonny Gray (RHP) – A bulldog to the end, Sonny Gray is a pitcher that anyone could take pride in having on their team. A true competitor, he never lets his stature get the best of him, and I’m sure he will make the team that drafts him come June very lucky indeed. He uses a fastball-curveball mix, and will advance fairly quickly through the minor leagues.

5. Dylan Bundy (RHP) – No relation to Ted, but he might soon be known as New Hoss Radbourn. Another one of those country-strong white boys from the midwest, Bundy has a legitimate three-pitch repertoire that makes the highschoolers heads spin. He’s got the major helium as of late, and could go as high as #3.

6. Francisco Lindor (SS) – This is the guy that’s been rocketing up the draft boards. With no real SS prospects in the minors, and a dearth of them in the upper rounds of this year’s draft, Lindor has risen above the rest.

7. Trevor Bauer (RHP) – The new-Lincecum, he also has bizarre mechanics (doesn’t make them wrong) and throws extremely high pitch counts. You can’t argue with the results though, as he has absolutely baffled hitters this year in the collegiate ranks, with 142 Ks in 91 IP. Dominance. Any teams worried about his arm or mechanics will surely pass him up, probably to their detriment.

8. Matt Barnes (RHP) – Another top collegiate pitcher – see a pattern here? – he plays his ball up at UConn, and he has all the makings of a #2 or #3 starter when he makes it to a big league team.

9. Danny Hultzen (LHP) – Some love him as a top-tier arm capable of being a #1 or #2 starter while others see him ending up in the bullpen. I think he will be a solid if possibly unspectacular pitcher that should go to a team such as Arizona looking for a fast-moving arm that is sure to contribute in some capacity.

10. Jackie Bradley Jr. (CF) – Another favorite of mine from watching the College World Series, Bradley also raised eyebrows with his play early this year. This will seem far too high to some, but I think the guy will be a legitimate bat that can play center field. That is extremely valuable.

11. Taylor Jungmann (RHP) – Another collegiate pitcher, Jungmann has been a workhorse since his freshman year, but inconsistent results have pushed him down draft boards. Even still, he’s 6-6 200 lbs, so he can easily reattain that workhorse label as a starter in the Majors.

12. Jed Bradley (LHP) – For what seems like the 26th time, we have a pitcher from the collegiate ranks. There’s actually quite a few people that easily have him in the top-10, but I’m a bit more skeptical. Though he’s not easy-top-ten IMO, I still like the guy in the top half of the first round.

13. Archie Bradley (RHP) – A top pitcher in the prep class, he’s another Oklahoman wünderkid. I’m not particularly fond of high school pitchers in the 1st round unless they are the cream of the crop, as Bundy is.

14. Taylor Guerrieri (RHP) - One of the better high school arms around, T-Guerr as he will now be called is going to be picked somewhere in the top-20. He’s not an overpowering ace, but he has solid command and feel for his pitches. Won’t be a particularly fast mover, but he certainly has first-round talent.

15. George Springer (RF) – Touted coming into the season as a possible Top-5 pick, Springer has soured some in the minds of some of the more respected analysts. I didn’t like what I saw to begin with, and though he surely could make a fine big leaguer, I don’t see Top-5 pick written on the man.

16. Daniel Norris (LHP) – Another top prep pitcher, Norris throws from the left side, making him all the more rare and valuable. You might wonder why I have him below Archie then? At 6’2″ 180 on a good day, he’s a bit on the light side, and I’m not a huge fan of slight-framed pitchers. I also refuse to trust anyone from a place called — Science Hill HS.

17. Mikie Mahtook (CF) – I liked this guy ever since I saw him play in the College World Series a couple years ago. At the time, everyone had a massive Tebowner for Jared Mitchell, but I really liked what I saw in Mahtook and I think he can play a legitimate center field and hit enough to make the show.

18. Matt Purke (LHP) – I’m completely fine with his demise, as I never particularly loved the guy, always preferring Cole as the top pitcher. You never want a guy to lose it completely, but I’m just glad that’s he’s dropped down far enough throughout the year for the Mariners to forget about him.

19. Alex Meyer (RHP) – One of the top players in the country coming out of high school, his insistence on experiencing college life at Kentucky made him a difficult sign. His body has grown a bit more than his draft stock, but he is still a hulk of a pitcher (6’9″ 220) that has the ability to get it done on the mound with power. Someone will take him in the top-20, it’s too “good” of a risk.

20. Blake Swihart (C) – I think I’m just biased against catchers in the first round ever since Jeff Clement. He’s the best of the bunch though, so good luck to him.

Case of the FIPs – It’s the Hot New Sh*t

by: Will Stanley

Not even that new, FIP and xFIP are statistics designed to replace the commonly misused statistic of ERA that graces box scores and scoreboards around the country. Even baseball announcing crews and ESPN anchors have started to use it in their everyday sports jargon. As it becomes increasingly more well-known and popular, it then becomes increasingly more important for people to understand what in the hell it exactly is.

It’s very easy to look at a pitcher’s ERA of 3.25 and say, “That guy is good.” But at the same time, that’s like seeing some guy make 10 three-pointers in a high school basketball game, then saying, “That guy can play in the NBA.”  You might be right, but the opinion is based off of nothing truly tangible. There are other facts that go into playing in the NBA or being a good pitcher.

Erik Bedard, as of this writing, has an ERA of around 9.00 which has him looking like a cross between Daisuke Matsuzaka and this kid who used to get 6-run-ruled in my Little League way back when. Look closer however, and you will see that he is running an xFIP of 3.94. Still not the best pitcher in the world, but right in line with his career averages in ERA, FIP, and xFIP of 3.77, 3.70, and 3.87 respectively.

His problem has simply been that he has left a few too many gopher balls up in the zone that have been taken yard for the ol’  four-bagger. We should not expect him to continue to give up HRs at such a rampant pace, so his expected “ERA” going forward is that xFIP number of 3.94. Not how he has done, just how he is expected to perform going forward (until he invariably gets injured, yet again) with a more normalized HR rate.

FIP, on the other hand, is just a more accurate representation of how a pitcher has already performed with whatever wacky home run rate they are putting up. Just like with xFIP, it takes into account park factors and the defensive contributions (or lack thereof, see Yankees ’09) of his teammates. His FIP of 7.83 clearly shows that yes indeed, he has sucked this year, but not even as bad as we thought. I will take a good run or more of reduced suckitude any day.

In short, xFIP and FIP are both far better numbers to point to in the never-ending debates of whose favorite pitcher is better. If you happen to follow baseball at all, and want to know who is due for a “rebound” or a normalization of their expected performance. It’s also a great way to look for sleeper candidates in fantasy leagues – unless you’re like me and you picked up Pineda and Britton for $1 a piece. Suck it.

Just for reference, during Pedro’s amazing 1999 season, the year in which he raped and pillaged every ballpark he went to, his ERA was a measly 2.07. His FIP? 1.39. Wow.

Next up: Stolen bases and the happy medium between gluttony and pride.

Further reading: Fangraphs xFIP & FIP

 

Pitcher Wins, They Hurt my Brain

 

If pitcher wins were toothpaste and orange juice is logic.

by: Will Stanley

With the baseball season underway, it seemed like a good time to address some of the more ridiculous stats that float around on air. Pitching wins is an easy enough example to follow, and it’s something that constantly gets brought up to correlate how “good” a pitcher is. For instance, anyone who “wins” 20 games over the course of a season is generally regarded by the media as an “ace”. While that’s not entirely untrue, it’s still misleading and gets us thinking that CC Sabathia is a better pitcher than Felix Hernandez, a flat out lie that would get you beheaded were this medieval Europe… or present day Middle East.

Possibly the best sportswriter in America, Joe Posnanski put it masterfully as he explained his ranking of Felix Hernandez as the 6th most valuable player in baseball. Which is LE-GIT by the way.

Excerpt

” 6. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

If you ever want to point out the random silliness of using pitcher wins as a measurement, go ahead and use Felix Hernandez. In 2009, Felix Hernandez went 19-5. He led the league in wins and winning percentage. He was the very essence of the gutsy, winning pitcher who has been so celebrated through the years. The man refused to let his team lose. That’s how the story went.

In 2010, he made the same number of starts. He completed four more games. His strikeouts went up. His walks went down. The league’s batters hit only .227 and slugged .318 against him in his gutsy 2009 season. They hit .212 and slugged .312 in 2010, which, you might note, is even better.

He threw an amazing 29 quality starts in 2009.

He threw 30 in 2010.

He was simply better in every way a pitcher can be better. And he was still the same man, King Felix, who inspired fear in his competitors and pride in his teammates, or whatever it is that people were saying about him when he went 19-5 the year before.

And, of course, in 2010 he went only 13-12. “

It may seem confusing to some how you can pitch better but have a far worse record, but I’ll try to explain it without going game-by-game through a pitcher’s season.

Basically, if you pitch a game, you are also reliant on two other main factors: your team’s defensive contributions, and your team’s offensive performance (or in the case of the Seattle Mariners, the lack thereof).

It’s entirely too common for comparative stat-lines of two pitchers to look something like this.

Pitcher A: 8 IP, 8K, 2 BB, 1 ER, gets the loss or no decision.

Pitcher B: 7 IP, 6K, 3 BB, 3 ER, gets the win.

Pitcher A could simply be on a terrible team that either allowed the other team unearned runs through errors, or simply put nothing on the board. Two things that the pitcher has absolutely no control over, but he got the loss anyway because the other team put up a measly run, while Pitcher B’s team (i.e. Yankees) hit a few home runs to help their pitcher out and get him the win.

At some point this year, you will undoubtedly hear an argument over who is better or who should be the winner of the Cy Young award. Invariably you will hear the response, “But so-and-so has 6 more wins than pitcher X, so he’s clearly way better.” You get to politely respond to them that they are clearly dumber. When they ask why, just refer them here.

In lieu of using pitcher wins (which should be thrown out entirely), at least try and look at something more legitimate like Quality Starts, which measures whether or not a pitcher threw 6+ innings with fewer than 3 earned runs. It’s not perfect, but it’s a start. ESPN has been doing a really terrific job trying to get the onus on some of the more advanced statistics out there, so the wave is coming. It is still some time before we see a proper “counting stat” to truly measure a win by a pitcher, but for the time being, just throw those wins out the window.

Next up: Why ERA sux and FIP rox.

Edit: Another great article showing pitcher comparisons and how it relates to pitcher wins.

Brackets: Quandaries and Glory

by: Daniel Wagner

As a sports fan, tournament brackets are one of the most exciting and important parts of March. Brackets enable you to always have a rooting interest in a game, furthering the appeal of March Madness. Beyond the excitement the brackets add to watching games, they are also a way to validate and prove your sports knowledge.

Currently I am in first place in the Northwest Roots bracket challenge with a bracket that is in the 90.2 percentile of all brackets submitted to ESPN. As one of the founders of NWRoots, it would feel very good on a personal level to win. Additionally, it couldn’t hurt to show that, as a writer for NWRoots, I somewhat know what I am talking about. The only thing standing in the way of my victory is a potential Connecticut win over the Wildcats of Kentucky. Herein lies my conundrum.

Kentucky happens to be coached by the most evil man in all of college basketball, John Calipari. I find myself faced with two different fates. If Connecticut makes the final I will fall to the middle of the pack of our tournament challenge, and if they lose I will reign supreme. A part of me would love to be able to have the winning bracket, but a much larger part of me hates everything about John Calipari. This is his third team that he has taken to the final four, but technically it is his first as his last two teams to have made it had to vacate their seasons due to recruiting violations that took place under Calipari.

As a University of Washington alumnus I hate Darth Calipari for repeatedly stealing recruits from us. Verbal commits Enes Kanter, and Terrence Jones both uncommitted after the shady recruiting of Lord Voldepari. Sure, a lot of coaches attempt and sometimes succeed in prying away recruits, but with John Calipari it is always a little more suspect than with other coache as he has vacated his most successful seasons due to NCAA violations. So excuse me if I have my reservations if I question how Kentucky has managed to create a Final Four team within two years of Calipari’s hiring, especially when one remembers that Kentucky’s last appearance came all the way back in 1998.

With tip off only mere hours away, I find myself in a very familiar position. I am rooting for the Huskies, just this time the ones from the Northeast, rather than the ones from the Northwest. Take my glory of bracket victory Kemba, I will happily sacrifice it when the result is a loss for Calipari and his shady program.

And if Kentucky wins, I ask you to acknowledge that I know more about sports than you. At least I can pretend I do.

2011 Season Preview

The day little Alex realized he should do steroids.

 

by: Will Stanley

With the spring training winding down and the season starting tomorrow, I thought I’d get all my sexy predictions up for the forthcoming season.

Without further ado, I predict that the 2011 NL MVP will be Albert Pujols.

Here’s how the game works – when you are the best player in baseball, it is difficult to win the MVP award every year for an extended period of time (see Jordan, Michael circa 1996-97 & 1998-99) as the voters just don’t like doing it for one reason or another. Besides the utter absurdity of their voting methods (don’t even get me started) it seems that The Machine, El Hombre, aka Mr. Albert Pujols is due for another MVP award in his trophy case. Don’t even make me mention that it is technically a contract year and who knows if he has Beltre-itis. The other hot name around the web is Troy Tulowitzki but I don’t see it unless they stomp their division, even if everyone has a massive Tebowner for the man.

AL MVP - Adrian Gonzalez is poised to absolutely destroy the ball in Fenway. This guy is the real deal, and after playing at spacious Petco Park in Whale’s Vagina, Fenway Park is going to seem like a Little League field. I repeat. Adrian Gonzalez is going to kill it this year.

Rookie of the Year

NL - I absolutely love Brandon Belt, and if Brian Sabean were just a tad dumber, I’d love to swindle him in a trade for the man. Though Belt will likely start the year in AAA (maybe not), his call-up is inevitable as Pat Burrell will surely revert back into Pat Burrell’s Corpse and they will be forced to bring Belt up to remove the putrid stench from the locker room.

AL – I think we aren’t going to see any starting pitchers overwhelm the superb stats that’ll be put up by Chris Sale, coming out of the bullpen for the White Sox and possibly closing games out.

Cy Young

NL – There’s about 38 candidates from the NL East alone, but I think the hype train that’s been following Josh Johnson around since mid-summer last season will finally arrive at the station.

AL - Jon Lester seems to be the sexy pick around t3h internets, but I’m sticking with the home cooking and going King Felix. I honestly think he will just have another great year, winning his second Cy Young and cementing his status as the top pitcher in the AL now that Halladay, Lee, and Greinke are all in the NL. Watch out for that Larry Bernandez guy though.

Least Valuable Player

NL - Hmm, I guess this depends on if Jose Lopez get’s traded to an AL team before the season starts. I believe Yuniesky Betancourt won’t get enough playing time with the Brewcrew to qualify. I dunno, I guess I’ll go dark horse on this one and say Carlos Lee absolutely falls apart at the plate in addition to his always horrific defense. The former Mariners almost beat him out though, and if Yuni plays on a regular basis  then all bets are off.

AL - Jeff Mathis is the easy choice. Probably the correct one too. Mike Sciosia has a raging clue for Mathis, playing him all year despite his negative value. Literally worthless. He might have less value than a Wazzu drug prevention program.

Playoff teams

NL – Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies

I think Colorado will be really good this year, and Milwaukee will ride their new pitching to an NL Central crown. The loser of the NL East wins the wildcard, but I think both the Phillies and Atlanta make the postseason.

AL – Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays

Obviously the toughest pick is who will win the wild card out of the AL East and who will be left home watching the TV when playoffs commence. The AL Central is another tough pick with the White Sox and Twins looking like formidable opponents. I’m going with Detroit having a lucky year and riding Verlander and Scherzer to a division title.

World Series – Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves

The 2011 MLB Champions will be the Boston Red Sox.  I think Epstein bought himself another World Series ring with the Crawford signing and the timely trade for Adrian Gonzalez. Atlanta’s offense just can’t match up with their pitching and they fall just short.

First fight of the year – I’m really hoping it’s during the first Yankees-Red Sox series of the year, but I’m putting my money on the first time the Phillies play the Braves the 8th-10th of April. I’m hoping they realize that they are each others’ biggest competition and start the season off heated.

Boldest prediction – Ichiro! will hit over .300 and steal over 30 bases. Again. For like the 27th time.

Jack Wilson > Ackley?

Teammates Brendan Ryan and Jack Wilson of the Seattle Mariners locked up in an intense game of hot potato.

by: Will Stanley

News broke this morning that, yes indeed, the Mariners are going to insert Brendan Ryan in as the starting shortstop, with veteran Jack Wilson moving to his new position of second base. Besides the collective sigh of disappointment that comes with acknowledging your team is starting the season with both Jack Wilson AND Brendan Ryan in the lineup, there is a smidgen of analysis to be had, if not questions to be asked.

Why would the Mariners do this?

1. They don’t believe Dustin Ackley is ready.

I have absolutely no doubts that Ackley could step right in to the Mariners everyday lineup and hit near .300, let alone simply outperform Jack Wilson offensively. Never mind that that’s like saying, “Hey I bet that regular everyday normal guy can outswim that quadripalegic guy.” There is also some sentiment that the M’s might try and make use of the service time loophole that’s gotten so popular recently. In short, if you hold a top prospect from the majors for at least two months, you essentially guarantee another year of him under contract for a significantly reduced price.

2. Defensive Alignment

This is essentially the stated case from management, as the move keeps the “superior” defender at shortstop, and moves an almost-equally-skilled defender to second, where the hope is that he will continue to shine on defense. It’s decent in practice, and when you look at the other middle infielders in spring training (yes, Adam Kennedy and Josh Wilson, yuck) you realize that we don’t have much to lose.

3. They have a sick obsession with offensive futility.

Jack Wilson was a bad hitting shortstop. Shortstop is probably the least demanding offensive position in baseball. Brendan Ryan is a fairly bad hitting shortstop. We have now managed to put two bad hitting shortstops into our lineup at the same time. If the Smoakmonster doesn’t have his breakout and we wait till mid-summer to call Ackley, this could be a very very difficult team to watch when King Felix isn’t pitching.

No really, why did they do this?

It seems to me that they made the proper assessment of the talent they had on hand and went with what will work best, both long-term and short-term. Shortstop is more demanding that second base, and though some might say that you shouldn’t make an older player learn a new position, you also shouldn’t let an older player stay at a position where his skills will start eroding faster than a dirt hill in a tidal wave.

With Wilson at second and Ryan at shortstop, the Mariners will have a strong defensive middle infield, with almost no bat to show for it. I’d bet money that, should Ackley get off to a hot start, he will get called up to replace Wilson, moving him into a utility role that he will actually be able to play due to his month or so of new experience at second base. If management decides Ackley can’t stick at second, at least they will have an in house replacement instead of having to scramble to find somebody to field the position properly.

It’s not the greatest or most exciting move in the world, but it’s most likely a necessary one as Jack Zduriencik builds our club to be better now and in the future. Just be ready to gauge out both your eyes if those two come up to the plate back-to-back.

2011 March Madness Guide

by: Griffin Bennett

It’s the most wonderful time of the year. Screw Christmas, March has it all and it begins and ends with the NCAA tournament. I watch more college basketball than most, so I figured that I would share my thoughts on this year’s bracket. There are some real mismatches and some seeding mistakes that you can use to gain an advantage. Let me brake it down region by region.

If you haven’t joined our Northwest Roots Bracket Challenge, please make your own bracket and take me on.

The East Region:

Top 4 Seeds: 1. Ohio State, 2. North Carolina, 3. Syracuse, 4. Kentucky.

This is the most difficult region in the whole bracket. Kentucky got under-seeded and deserved to be a 3 or possible even a 2. North Carolina might be a little bit of a stretch as a 2 seed but they have come on hot as of late.

Upset Alert:

1. Marquette (11) over Xavier (6). Marquette is led by Darius Johnson-Odom and Jimmy Butler who are two great Big East stars. I love picking a Big East team to upset a mid-major. Xavier is still a good team, but Marquette has a slightly better squad and remembers the first round loss from the Huskies last year.
2. Villanova (9) over George Mason (8). Now this isn’t a real upset because 8/9 games are 50/50, but Nova is another Big East team going against a mid-major. I can’t stress this strategy enough. The Big East beats each other up as they all gather losses. That leads the bottom half of the Big East qualifiers to be underrated. Bet the Big East.
3. Washington (7) over North Carolina (2). Hear me out. This is not a homer pick, and I would be the first one to pick against UW if I didn’t think they would win. UNC’s biggest weakness is their point-guard spot. Kendall Marshall and Larry Drew struggle against top point-guards and Isaiah Thomas is just that. Holiday is a great defensive match up on Harrison Barnes, who hates to drive to the hoop or rebound. The biggest challenge will be down low with MBA and Aziz vs. Tyler Zeller and John Henson. I would say UNC has the slight edge over UW there, but it’s not by a huge margin. The teams are insanely equal on paper and UW has far more experience. The home crowd factor will come into play, however Duke also is playing in Charlotte so every Blue Devil fan will be rooting heavily for UW. Mark it down. UW to the Sweet Sixteen.

Overrated: George Mason, Georgia, West Virginia, North Carolina, Xavier.

Underrated: Kentucky, Marquette, Washington.

Final Four Pick: Ohio State. They have the perfect combination of size, speed, shooting, experience, and talent.

The West Region:

Top 4 Seeds: 1. Duke, 2. San Diego State, 3. UConn, 4. Texas